PROSPECTS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH OF RUSSIA UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF A NEW ECONOMIC REALITY

Abstract

Purpose: to develop and substantiate the most probabilistic development trends in agricultural production in the south of Russia in the context of a new economic reality. Materials and methods. The methodological research tools on the declared subject is based on general scientific and specific methods, including economic analysis, monographic, inertial (linear and nonlinear trends), expert assessment method. The results of trend modeling are based on economic, mathematical and statistical accuracy criteria. The object of the research was the agrarian sector of the economy of the Southern Federal District. The prediction calculations were based on an assessment of the development trends of agricultural sectors in a multi-structured format for the period 2009–2018. Results. The development of the agrarian sector of the economy of the southern Russia in the context of a new economic (post-pandemic) reality is examined. The necessity of introducing the systematic development of forecasts aimed at smoothing the amplitude of fluctuations of the market economic management mechanism and the uneven development of its branches of agricultural production into the practice of state regulation of the economy has been proved. The computational and analytical tools for developing a forecast for agricultural sectors based on linear and nonlinear trend models have been substantiated. The main forecast volumes of production of the main types of food, including grain, sunflower, vegetables, meat, milk, in a multi-structure format for the period up to 2025 have been determined. Conclusions. The implementation of the strategic priorities of the agrarian sector of the economy in the South of Russia in the context of a new economic reality in the medium term period is possible both through the development of large system-forming agrarian formations, and by stimulating the interests of small and medium-sized businesses.

Keywords

• new economic reality
• economic forecasting
• state regulation
• economic and mathematical modeling methods
• forecast parameters