Extremal dependence between temperature and ozone over the continental US

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2018;18:11927-11948 DOI 10.5194/acp-18-11927-2018

 

Journal Homepage

Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

ISSN: 1680-7316 (Print); 1680-7324 (Online)

Publisher: Copernicus Publications

Society/Institution: European Geosciences Union (EGU)

LCC Subject Category: Science: Physics | Science: Chemistry

Country of publisher: Germany

Language of fulltext: English

Full-text formats available: PDF, XML

 

AUTHORS


P. Phalitnonkiat (Center for Applied Math, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA)

P. G. M. Hess (Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA)

M. D. Grigoriu (School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA)

G. Samorodnitsky (School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA)

W. Sun (Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA)

E. Beaudry (Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA)

S. Tilmes (Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA)

M. Deushi (Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba, Japan)

B. Josse (CNRM UMR 3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France)

D. Plummer (Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, Canada)

K. Sudo (Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan)

EDITORIAL INFORMATION

Peer review

Editorial Board

Instructions for authors

Time From Submission to Publication: 16 weeks

 

Abstract | Full Text

<p>The co-occurrence of heat waves and pollution events and the resulting high mortality rates emphasize the importance of the co-occurrence of pollution and temperature extremes. Through the use of extreme value theory and other statistical methods, tropospheric surface ozone and temperature extremes and their joint occurrence are analyzed over the United States during the summer months (JJA) using measurements and simulations of the present and future climate and chemistry. Five simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) reference experiment using specified dynamics (REFC1SD) were analyzed: the CESM1 CAM4-chem, CHASER, CMAM, MOCAGE and MRI-ESM1r1 simulations. In addition, a 25-year present-day simulation branched off the CCMI REFC2 simulation in the year 2000 and a 25-year future simulation branched off the CCMI REFC2 simulation in 2100 were analyzed using CESM1 CAM4-chem. The last two simulations differed in their concentration of carbon dioxide (representative of the years 2000 and 2100) but were otherwise identical. In general, regions with relatively high ozone extremes over the US do not occur in regions of relatively high temperature extremes. A new metric, the spectral density, is developed to measure the joint extremal dependence of ozone and temperature by evaluating the spectral dependence of their extremes. While in many areas of the country ozone and temperature are highly correlated overall, the correlation is significantly reduced when examined on the higher end of the distributions. Measures of spectral density are less than about 0.35 everywhere, suggesting that at most only about a third of the time do extreme temperatures coincide with extreme ozone. Two regions of the US have the strongest measured extreme dependence of ozone and temperature: the northeast and the southeast. The simulated future increase in temperature and ozone is primarily due to a shift in their distributions, not to an increase in their extremes. The locations where the right-hand side of the temperature distribution does increase (by up to 30&thinsp;%) are consistent with locations where soil–moisture feedback may be expected. Future changes in the right-hand side of the ozone distribution range regionally between +20&thinsp;% and −10&thinsp;%. The location of future increases in the high-end tail of the ozone distribution are weakly related to those of temperature with a correlation of 0.3. However, the regions where the temperature extremes increase are not located where the extremes in ozone are large, suggesting a muted ozone response.</p>