Projections of thermal conditions for Poland for winters 2021?2050 in relation to atmospheric circulation

Abstract

Winter thermal conditions in Poland are largely determined by atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the projection of future temperature change should be considered in relation to changes in circulation patterns. This paper assesses the spatial variability in winter temperature in Poland in the 2021?2050 period based on the CLM, HIRHAM5 and RACMO2 models. Thermal conditions in winter have been studied in relation to the atmospheric circulation as a main factor of winter temperature change in Poland. Firstly, winter thermal conditions according to different regional climate model projections were compared with the observations for the reference period (1971?2000). Furthermore, changes in the frequency of the atmospheric circulation types in winter were examined for the 2021?2050 period based on the 1971?2000 period. Finally, the influence of the atmospheric circulation on spatial temperature variation was discussed. All analyzed models present warming for Poland in 2021?2050 in comparison to the reference period (1971?2000). The spatial winter temperature distribution in Poland indicates high relation with the atmospheric circulation in the past and future climate.

Keywords

• air temperature change
• atmospheric circulation
• regional climate model