Reliability model of the security subsystem countering to the impact of typed cyber-physical attacks

Abstract

Abstract The article's main contribution is the description of the process of the security subsystem countering the impact of typed cyber-physical attacks as a model of end states in continuous time. The input parameters of the model are the flow intensities of typed cyber-physical attacks, the flow intensities of possible cyber-immune reactions, and the set of probabilities of neutralization of cyber-physical attacks. The set of admissible states of the info-communication system is described taking into account possible variants of the development of the modeled process. The initial parameters of the model are the probabilities of the studied system in the appropriate states at a particular moment. The dynamics of the info-communication system's life cycle are embodied in the form of a matrix of transient probabilities. The mentioned matrix connects the initial parameters in the form of a system of Chapman's equations. The article presents a computationally efficient concept based on Gershgorin's theorems to solve such a system of equations with given initiating values. Based on the presented scientific results, the article proposes the concept of calculating the time to failure as an indicator of the reliability of the info-communication system operating under the probable impact of typical cyber-physical attacks. The adequacy of the model and concepts presented in the article is proved by comparing a statically representative amount of empirical and simulated data. We emphasize that the main contribution of the research is the description of the process of the security subsystem countering the impact of typed cyber-physical attacks as a model of end states in continuous time. Based on the created model, the concept of computationally efficient solution of Chapman's equation system based on Gershgorin's theorems and calculating time to failure as an indicator of the reliability of the info-communication system operating under the probable impact of typed cyber-physical attacks are formalized. These models and concepts are the highlights of the research.