Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Feb 2022)
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
- A. A. Scaife,
- A. A. Scaife,
- M. P. Baldwin,
- M. P. Baldwin,
- A. H. Butler,
- A. J. Charlton-Perez,
- D. I. V. Domeisen,
- D. I. V. Domeisen,
- C. I. Garfinkel,
- S. C. Hardiman,
- P. Haynes,
- A. Y. Karpechko,
- E.-P. Lim,
- S. Noguchi,
- S. Noguchi,
- J. Perlwitz,
- L. Polvani,
- L. Polvani,
- J. H. Richter,
- J. Scinocca,
- M. Sigmond,
- T. G. Shepherd,
- S.-W. Son,
- D. W. J. Thompson
Affiliations
- A. A. Scaife
- Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK
- A. A. Scaife
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- M. P. Baldwin
- Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- M. P. Baldwin
- Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- A. H. Butler
- NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL), Boulder, CO, USA
- A. J. Charlton-Perez
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
- D. I. V. Domeisen
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
- D. I. V. Domeisen
- Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- C. I. Garfinkel
- Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
- S. C. Hardiman
- Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, UK
- P. Haynes
- Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- A. Y. Karpechko
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
- E.-P. Lim
- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
- S. Noguchi
- Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
- S. Noguchi
- Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
- J. Perlwitz
- NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), Boulder, CO, USA
- L. Polvani
- Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- L. Polvani
- Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
- J. H. Richter
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
- J. Scinocca
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
- M. Sigmond
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
- T. G. Shepherd
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
- S.-W. Son
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- D. W. J. Thompson
- Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 22
pp. 2601 – 2623
Abstract
Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.
