Energy system models should consider evolving charging profiles

Abstract

Globally, sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are surpassing records every year, and their growing charging needs will ultimately reshape power infrastructure planning practices. While studies have analyzed the impact of light-duty BEVs on the electricity sector, they have overlooked the prospective evolution in charging profiles. We developed a framework for analyzing passenger vehicle electrification futures accounting for the evolution in charging infrastructure, BEVs technical features, and socio-demographics. We soft-link a BEV charging profiles generator with an energy system optimization model to analyze a light-duty vehicle electrification scenario in the U.S. from 2020–2050. Compared to static charging profiles, common in prior work, evolving profiles lead to substantial differences in projected power plant installed capacity (up to ∼300 GW more solar PV) and activity (up to ∼460 TWh more solar PV generation). Hence, future studies should consider not only different charging profiles (e.g. day, night, uncontrolled) but also how these evolve over time.

Keywords

• electric vehicles
• energy system modeling
• charging profiles
• dynamic projection
• capacity expansion
• TEMOA