Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, United States
Catherine L Moyes
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Samir Bhatt
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Peter W Gething
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Peter W Horby
Epidemic Diseases Research Group, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Isaac I Bogoch
Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Divisions of Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Toronto, Canada
John S Brownstein
Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States; Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States
Sumiko R Mekaru
Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States
Andrew J Tatem
Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden
Kamran Khan
Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethseda, United States
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.
