Predicting Length of Stay in Intensive Care Units after Cardiac Surgery: Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy System

Abstract

ObjectivesAccurate prediction of patients' length of stay is highly important. This study compared the performance of artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy system algorithms to predict patients' length of stay in intensive care units (ICU) after cardiac surgery.MethodsA cross-sectional, analytical, and applied study was conducted. The required data were collected from 311 cardiac patients admitted to intensive care units after surgery at three hospitals of Shiraz, Iran, through a non-random convenience sampling method during the second quarter of 2016. Following the initial processing of influential factors, models were created and evaluated.ResultsThe results showed that the adaptive neuro-fuzzy algorithm (with mean squared error [MSE] = 7 and R = 0.88) resulted in the creation of a more precise model than the artificial neural network (with MSE = 21 and R = 0.60).ConclusionsThe adaptive neuro-fuzzy algorithm produces a more accurate model as it applies both the capabilities of a neural network architecture and experts' knowledge as a hybrid algorithm. It identifies nonlinear components, yielding remarkable results for prediction the length of stay, which is a useful calculation output to support ICU management, enabling higher quality of administration and cost reduction.

Keywords

• forecasting
• neural networks
• decision support techniques
• length of stay
• heart diseases
• cardiac surgical procedures
• intensive care unit