Assessment of surface ozone products from downscaled CAMS reanalysis and CAMS daily forecast using urban air quality monitoring stations in Iran

Abstract

Tropospheric ozone time series consist of the effects of various scales of motion, from meso-scales to large timescales, which are often challenging for global models to capture. This study uses two global datasets, namely the reanalysis and the daily forecast of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), to assess the capability of these products in presenting ozone's features on regional scales. We obtained 16 relevant meteorological and several pollutant species, such as O3, CO, NOx, etc., from CAMS. Furthermore, we employed a comprehensive set of in situ measurements of ozone at 27 urban stations in Iran for the year 2020. We decomposed the time series into three spectral components, i.e., short (S), medium (M), and long (L) terms. To cope with the scaling issue between the measured data and the CAMS' products, we developed a downscaling approach based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network method which, apart from modeled ozone, also assimilated meteorological quantities as well as lagged O3 observations. Results show the benefit of applying the LSTM method instead of using the original CAMS products for providing O3 over Iran. It is found that lagged O3 observation has a larger contribution than other predictors in improving the LSTM. Compared with the S, the M component shows more associations with observations, e.g., correlation coefficients larger than 0.7 for the S and about 0.95 for the M in both models. The performance of the models varies across cities; for example, the highest error is for areas with high emissions of O3 precursors. The robustness of the results is confirmed by performing an additional downscaling method. This study demonstrates that coarse-scale global model data, such as CAMS, need to be downscaled for regulatory purposes or policy applications at local scales. Our method can be useful not only for the evaluation but also for the prediction of other chemical species, such as aerosols.