Simulation modeling as a means of forecasting passenger traffic at Moscow Metro transfer stations

Abstract

The article substantiates the necessity of simulation modeling for passenger traffic processes at Moscow Metro stations. The study aims to develop a simulation model based on pedestrian flows to predict changes in their density and directions in the organization of the station space. The use of the method of structural analysis allowed to establish all the key objects of the studied processes and the links between them. Input parameters and process interaction rules are obtained using abstraction, synthesis, grouping, and statistical analysis techniques. Based on the results obtained, formal models of the behavior of each group of objects have been developed. A 3D twin model corresponding to the real research object was created to visualize the simulation model results and demonstrate the results of the scenario implementation. Moscow Metropolitan can use the results obtained for the operational management of flows at the stations and the modernization of their infrastructure.