Profitability of V2X under uncertainty: Relevant influencing factors and implications for future business models

Abstract

Intelligent, bidirectional charging strategies (vehicle-to-X, V2X) are a crucial part of the decarbonization of the transport sector. To facilitate the successful rollout of business models associated with V2X, we identify revenue potentials for different use cases, additional costs, and resulting profits for future years. Our assessments result in ranges of profits for different V2X types with the spread of profits providing a measure of uncertainty. The profit analysis shows that some V2X types can most certainly become profitable in the near future. For vehicle-to-home (V2H), for instance, profits of 390 € per vehicle and year in 2040 are determined, if viewed optimistically. Other V2X types (vehicle-to-business, V2B, and vehicle-to-grid, V2G) are subject to high uncertainties, where high as well as low or no profits are possible for future years. External circumstances are found to be of great impact regarding V2X profitability with user type and location being most relevant. Based on this, we derive business model implications and draw conclusions for a well-considered business model design. To mitigate uncertainties and increase the change of profitability, the focus of business model development should be on customer segments, revenue streams and value propositions.

Keywords

• Bidirectional charging strategies
• Electric vehicle integration
• Revenue potentials
• Additional costs
• Vehicle-to-home
• Vehicle-to-business