The Evaluation of Rainfall Warning Thresholds for Shallow Slope Stability Based on the Local Safety Factor Theory

Abstract

Rainfall-induced shallow slope instability is a significant global hazard, often triggered by water infiltration that affects soil stability and involves dynamic changes in the hydraulic behavior of unsaturated soils. This study employs a hydro-mechanical coupled analysis model to assess the impact of rainfall on slope stability, focusing on the dynamic hydraulic behavior of unsaturated soils. By simulating the soil water content and slope stability under four different rainfall scenarios based on observational data and historical thresholds, this study reveals that higher rainfall intensity significantly increases the soil water content, leading to reduced slope stability. The results show a strong correlation between the soil water content and slope stability, with a 20 mm/h rainfall intensity threshold emerging as a reliable predictor of potential slope instability. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of slope stability dynamics and emphasizes the importance of proactive risk management in response to changing rainfall patterns while also validating current management practices and providing essential insight for improving early warning systems to effectively mitigate landslide risk.

Keywords

• unsaturated soil
• shallow slope failure
• slope stability
• local factor of safety