Cognitive-Biased Decision on Courier Express Parcel Market and the Effect of Narratives

Abstract

Background: Extensive research highlights the economic benefits of collaboration among parcel delivery service providers, yet mutually advantageous cooperative arrangements remain limited in Hungary’s online shopping sector. Service providers typically prefer to operate independently rather than cooperate with competitors. However, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly altered industry dynamics, leading to increased collaboration. Methods: Against this backdrop, this study explores two key research questions. First, it examines the role of economic narratives in shaping market dynamics. Second, it investigates the cognitive biases influencing decision-makers during the pandemic, based on an analysis of Hungary’s parcel delivery sector. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with key actors in the logistics industry, and the data were analyzed using abductive thematic analysis. Results: The findings reveal that specific economic narratives, such as those emphasizing efficiency and safety, indirectly influenced market mechanisms during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the shift in consumer demand towards contactless parcel lockers created new incentives for collaboration. Additionally, this study demonstrates that decision-makers exhibited cognitive biases such as risk aversion, which affected their willingness to cooperate. Conclusions: The research concludes that strong economic incentives can override these biases, fostering collaboration among service providers.

Keywords

• cognitive bias
• courier express parcel market (CEP)
• collaboration
• parcel delivery
• narrative economy
• Hungary