Effect of testing criteria for infectious disease surveillance: The case of COVID-19 in Norway.

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway, the testing criteria and capacity changed numerous times. In this study, we aim to assess consequences of changes in testing criteria for infectious disease surveillance. We plotted the proportion of positive PCR tests and the total number of PCR tests for different periods of the pandemic in Norway. We fitted regression models for the total number of PCR tests and the probability of positive PCR tests, with time and weekday as explanatory variables. The regression analysis focuses on the time period until 2021, i.e. before Norway started vaccination. There were clear changes in testing criteria and capacity over time. In particular, there was a marked difference in the testing regime before and after the introduction of self-testing, with a drastic increase in the proportion of positive PCR tests after the introduction of self-tests. The probability of a PCR test being positive was higher for weekends and public holidays than for Mondays-Fridays. The probability for a positive PCR test was lowest on Mondays. This implies that there were different testing criteria and/or different test-seeking behaviour on different weekdays. Though the probability of testing positive clearly changed over time, we cannot in general conclude that this occurred as a direct consequence of changes in testing policies. It is natural for the testing criteria to change during a pandemic. Though smaller changes in testing criteria do not seem to have large, abrupt consequences for the disease surveillance, larger changes like the introduction and massive use of self-tests makes the test data less useful for surveillance.