Modeling the potential distribution to present and future of the poorly known species Xenohyla eugenioi Caramaschi, 1998 (Anura: Hylidae) with findings about its distribution, natural history, and conservation

Abstract

Abstract The distribution of amphibians is conditioned by historical factors and ecological drivers. Thus, Ecological Niche Models are important tools to provide information on the potential distribution of the species and determine where they will be requirements in future. Mainly, rare species or with restricted areas of occurrence, because this information are essential to understanding of their living area, microhabitat use, or natural history, serving as a basis for preservation actions. Xenohyla eugenioi is a poorly known species, restricted to transition areas of Caatinga and Atlantic Forest from Minas Gerais to Sergipe. This species exhibits little biological information available and few specimens housed in museums, which difficulty to plan conservation strategies. Here our aim was modeling the current and future distribution and discussing about conservation of Xenohyla eugenioi. We searched for occurrence records through literature and scientific collections data. For the future (2071-2100), we used ensemble models from three algorithms (CTA, GLM and ANN) to two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios). This species has approximately 650 km in straight line between the extreme localities, occurring mainly in bromeliads near to water bodies. The Ensemble method indicates the most suitable areas of occurrence were over ecotonal range between Caatinga and Atlantic Forest and our projections have showed suitable conditions to highlands (up to 1.000 m). However, in the future, is expected total erosion of the X. eugenioi populations, due climatic changes, which reinforce the caution to conservation of this poorly known species and necessity of studies about its ecology, natural history and distribution. Moreover, we hope that this work can contribute to the discovery of new records, characterizing the narrower niche space than this species may actually inhabit.

Keywords

• Anura
• Climate change
• Extinction
• Ecological Niche Modeling
• Species distribution model