Evaluation of Thailand’s COVID-19-Related policies and their impact on the stock market using a PMC Index model approach1

Abstract

AbstractThe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic produced adverse effects which spreads globally and throughout all the nations. During the outbreak, governments announced emergency policies geared to control the situation. Subsequently, researchers have attempted to determine the advantages and disadvantages of these policies. We developed a method for evaluating COVID-19 policy in Thailand from January 2020 to March 2022. The Policy Model Consistency (PMC) Index is introduced as the primary model with 10 powerful indicators for policy evaluation. Additionally, the stock price changes while the COVID-19 policy was being enforced, as recorded in the Securities Exchange of Thailand (SET) database, are also observed with the other indicators for a measure of public confidence. All indicators are scored on a binary basis based on the policy consistency. The result of PMC-score is outputted as a contour surface graph. The PMC-surface result shows the good and adverse point of the policy to a policymaker, and it is successfully discussed to present the internal relationship of the indicators from the policymaker’s perspective. This tool benefits policymakers by facilitating early identification of policy’s strengths and weaknesses and the findings of policy angles in all related perspectives are significant to policymakers to address and improve in the next enhancement as well.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Policy Model Consistency (PMC) Index
• stock impact