The Approaches to Assessing the Impact of Crises of Non-Economic Origin on the Socioeconomic System of Ukraine

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to develop a methodical approach to assessing the consequences of crises of non-economic origin and their synergistic effect for Ukraine. The article analyzes contemporary approaches to identifying the economic consequences of crises of natural, biological and military origin and shows that the situation in Ukraine is characterized by a layering of consequences of crises of both military and biological origin, which complicates the assessment. A classification of the consequences of crises of non-economic origin is proposed, which includes the scope of manifestation of consequences, pace and sequence, scale, duration of impact and time of occurrence, and is aimed at choosing methods for assessing and predicting the consequences. A schematic diagram of a scientific-methodical approach to assessing the consequences of crises of non-economic origin has been developed, which involves an assessment that is carried out in four dimensions: the direction of assessment (in accordance with the sphere of manifestations of the crisis), the subjective-objective (in accordance with the methods of assessment used), the temporal (in accordance with the stages of the emergence and unfolding of the crisis), and macro-mesoeconomic (in accordance with the scale of the crisis) dimensions, and thus allows to form a cognitive map of the consequences of a crisis of a certain etiology. It is shown that for Ukraine in the current crisis, it is expedient to single out two stages of assessment: the 1st – the deployment of the pandemic, the 2nd – military aggression against the background of the pandemic, as well as the use of expert assessment methods at the second stage. Based on the analysis of world experience, indicators for assessing the consequences of the crisis are proposed. The developed scientific-methodical approach allows to identify the most vulnerable sectors of the economy, to define causal relationships in the process of spreading in the economy and social sphere of the country of the crisis caused by both the pandemic and military aggression, is of universal nature, and can be used for researching the crises of various non-economic origins, also for developing a system for monitoring and preventing the spread of crises.

Keywords

• crisis
• classification
• methodical approach
• impact assessment
• pandemic
• military aggression