Estimation of groundwater recharge using multiple climate models in Bayesian frameworks

Abstract

Groundwater recharge plays a vital role in replenishing aquifers, sustaining demand, and reducing adverse effects (e.g. land subsidence). In order to manage climate change-induced effects on groundwater dynamics, climate models are increasingly being used to predict current and future recharges. Even though there has been a number of hydrological studies that have averaged climate models’ predictions in a Bayesian framework, few studies have been related to the groundwater recharge. In this study, groundwater recharge estimates from 10 regional climate models (RCMs) are averaged in 12 different Bayesian frameworks with variations of priors. A recession-curve-displacement method was used to compute recharge from measured streamflow data. Two basins of different sizes located in the same water resource region in the USA, the Cedar River Basin and the Rainy River Basin, are selected to illustrate the approach and conduct quantitative analysis. It has been shown that groundwater recharge prediction is affected by the Bayesian priors. The non-Empirical Bayes g-Local-based Bayesian priors result in posterior inclusion probability values that are consistent with the performance of the climate models outside the Bayesian framework. With the proper choice of priors, the Bayesian frameworks can produce good results of groundwater recharge with R2, percent bias error, and Willmott's index of agreement of >0.97, 0.97, respectively, in the two basins. The Bayesian framework with an appropriate prior provides opportunity to estimate recharge from multiple climate models. HIGHLIGHTS The choice of prior affects the suitability of Bayesian formulation for averaging recharge.; All RCMs tend to underestimate groundwater recharge.; Non-EBL-based priors result in posterior inclusion probabilities consistent with the RCM performance.; Bayesian frameworks produce a better recharge estimate than individual RCMs.;

Keywords

• bayesian framework
• bayesian priors (mpriors and g-priors)
• groundwater recharge
• regional climate models (rcms)