Factor Modelling of Russian Parents’ Opinions on the Impact of the Parental Leave System on the Birth Rate

Abstract

In the context of the negative demographic trend in Russia, new mechanisms for stimulating birth rates are of particular relevance. One such instrument is parental leave policy. The aim of our study is to model the impact of potential transformations in parental leave on the reproductive intentions of Russian parents using factor analysis. In 2022, we conducted a survey of Russian parents with children under the age of 18 months. The sample consisted of 1,000 individuals, and the survey covered nearly all regions of Russia. We identified two main components: 1. Opinions on the flexibility of the parental leave system as a factor for improving birth rates; 2. Opinions on the amount of parental leave benefits as a factor for improving birth rates. We found significant correlations between the values of these components and several socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents, including gender, age, satisfaction with the current division of parental responsibilities within the family, the desire to legally mandate fathers to take a portion of parental leave in Russia, and the prospective evaluation of the financial status change if mandatory paternal leave were to be introduced. Our results contribute to the ongoing debate on the necessity and feasibility of improving the existing parental leave system in Russia and its potential impact on birth rates.