Long-term forecasting of international relations as strategic planning of national security policy

Abstract

The contemporary transformation and chaos in international relations reduce its predictability, which must be compensated by strengthening the normative content of its analysis that is in fact strategic planning. The deepening of international relations in recent years allows one to make a pessimistic conclusion about the most likely and dangerous scenario for the development of international relations - «the strengthening of military power struggles among the major local human civilizations» and they represent a militarypolitical coalitions and power centers. It should be noted that an effective tool for the implementation of this confrontation is the system of military and civilian instruments used to provide comprehensive multi-factor and multi-dimensional effect on an object. Today, the most striking example of such an integrated infl uence policy is the new public diplomacy. For implementation of such an integrated approach Russia needs to reform the system of national security to include in it not only the traditional enforcement agencies, but also the organizations of business and civil society, as well as to improve coordination between its individual parts. However, the implementation of such a reform is impossible without national ideology that forms the regulatory priorities of national development and national security

Keywords

• military conflicts
• local human civilization
• human capital
• national security strategy
• strategic outlook
• strategic planning