Financial reporting of transnational companies as a source of recession prediction

Abstract

The ability to predict economic recession on investment activity of transnational corporations has been investigated in this paper. Cash flow statement of transnational corporations as a source of investment analysis has been considered. The conclusion about the prospects of using the method of analysis of investment activity on the basis of the financial statements of transnational corporations to predict the recession has been done. The advantage of this method is its efficiency, that means the possibility of quarterly forecasts, as well as the fact that the decrease in investment activity, as an indicator of changes in precession occurs rather decrease in gross domestic product. The disadvantage of this method is the impact on the investment activity of transnational corporations subjective factors and possible problems with access to the financial statements of such companies. It was found that the process of reducing of the investments, as a factor of recessionary changes, occurs earlier than the decline in GDP.

Keywords

• economic cycle
• cash flow statement
• investments
• information provision for recession prediction