Determining the impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation change on the Chinese Loess Plateau considering human-induced vegetation type change and time-lag effects of climate on vegetation growth

Abstract

ABSTRACTSince the initiation of the Grain for Green Project (GFGP) in 1999, dramatic change in vegetation status on the Loess Plateau. Spatially, geographical detector was employed to detect dominant variables influencing the spatial arrangement of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Temporally, lagged or accumulated monthly precipitation, temperature and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEIs) sensitive to the monthly NDVI were first detected for every individual pixel, and the correlation between the NDVI and meteorological elements with time-lag effects was established a random forest model of unchanged land cover, followed by attributing impacts of climatic alterations and human interventions through residual examination across changed land cover. The findings indicate that (1) precipitation, slope, and soil dominantly influence the spatial arrangement of the NDVI. (2) Precipitation in current the month and cumulative temperatures of the previous 1–2 months steadily affect vegetation growth significantly, the optimal accumulation time interval for SPEI around 2000 are 8 months and 4 months, respectively. (3) Increases in the average NDVI within woodland and meadow vegetation on the Loess Plateau were primarily driven by climate change before 2000, accounting for 76.2%, whereas after 2000 it was dominantly driven by human activities, accounting for 64.16%.

Keywords

• NDVI
• climate change
• human activities
• geodetector
• random forest model
• loess plateau