Low dose radiation and cancer in A-bomb survivors: latency and non-linear dose-response in the 1950–90 mortality cohort

Abstract

Abstract Background Analyses of Japanese A-bomb survivors' cancer mortality risks are used to establish recommended annual dose limits, currently set at 1 mSv (public) and 20 mSv (occupational). Do radiation doses below 20 mSv have significant impact on cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors, and is the dose-response linear? Methods I analyse stomach, liver, lung, colon, uterus, and all-solid cancer mortality in the 0 – 20 mSv colon dose subcohort of the 1950–90 (grouped) mortality cohort, by Poisson regression using a time-lagged colon dose to detect latency, while controlling for gender, attained age, and age-at-exposure. I compare linear and non-linear models, including one adapted from the cellular bystander effect for α particles. Results With a lagged linear model, Excess Relative Risk (ERR) for the liver and all-solid cancers is significantly positive and several orders of magnitude above extrapolations from the Life Span Study Report 12 analysis of the full cohort. Non-linear models are strongly superior to the linear model for the stomach (latency 11.89 years), liver (36.90), lung (13.60) and all-solid (43.86) in fitting the 0 – 20 mSv data and show significant positive ERR at 0.25 mSv and 10 mSv lagged dose. The slope of the dose-response near zero is several orders of magnitude above the slope at high doses. Conclusion The standard linear model applied to the full 1950–90 cohort greatly underestimates the risks at low doses, which are significant when the 0 – 20 mSv subcohort is modelled with latency. Non-linear models give a much better fit and are compatible with a bystander effect.