Haiyang Kaifa yu guanli (Oct 2023)
System Dynamics-based Simulation and Modelling of Green Development Policies in China's Mariculture Industry
Abstract
The green development of the mariculture industry involves the interaction of economic, resource, environmental and scientific systems, and is a complex and dynamic process. To investigate the effect of different policies on this process, this paper used the system dynamics method to construct a simulation model of the green development of China's mariculture industry, simulating the green development trend of the mariculture industry from 2021 to 2035, and on this basis, four policy simulation models were set up for comparative analysis, with economic input, ecological protection and scientific and technological innovation as the guide. The results showed that under the status quo development model, the overall level of green development of mariculture had improved, but the pressure of resource consumption and environmental pollution had increased, and economic growth was weak. Under a single regulatory policy scenario, economic development policies could hardly achieve green development, science and technology innovation policies could significantly promote the green development of mariculture, and ecological protection policies had the best effect on reducing energy consumption and improving environmental quality. Coordinated development policies promoted the green development of mariculture significantly better than single regulation policies, with economic development and resource utilisation both at the highest level, science and technology significantly improved, energy consumption significantly reduced, and ecological and environmental quality significantly improved.
