Intellectualization of the urban and rural bus: The arrival time prediction method

Abstract

To improve the intelligence of urban and rural buses, it is necessary to realize the accurate prediction of bus arrival time. This paper first introduced urban and rural buses. Then, the arrival time prediction was divided into two parts: road travel time and stop time, and they were predicted by the support vector regression method and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) method. A section of a bus route in Pingdingshan city of Henan province was taken as an example for analysis. The results showed that the method designed in this study had better accuracy, and the result was closer to the actual value, with a maximum error of 84 s, a minimum error of 10 s, an average error of 42.5 s, and an average relative error of 5.74%, which could meet the needs of passengers. The results verify the reliability of the designed method in predicting the arrival time of urban and rural buses, which can be popularized and applied in practice.

Keywords

• urban and rural bus
• intelligent bus
• arrival time prediction
• relative error