Projected responses of Cerrado anurans to climate change are mediated by biogeographic character

Abstract

Climate change has affected the distribution and phenology of several species. However, due to narrow ecological and physiological tolerances, not all species are affected in the same way. Here, we test whether life history characteristics and biogeographic character influence the response of Cerrado anurans to climate change using ecological niche models. Our results demonstrate that a reduction in the potential distribution area is expected for most species in both optimistic (∼ 70%) and pessimistic (∼ 65%) emission scenarios. At first glance, this result might seem illogical, but when we assessed the magnitude of the losses, we found that even though more species lost area in the optimistic scenario, the amount of area lost was less than in the pessimistic scenario. Our findings also show that species that inhabit higher-altitude areas and the Western Cerrado will be more vulnerable to climate change. This shared “destination” in the face of climate change is associated with the sharing of some climate niche attributes among species in the same region, leading to similar responses. This data can be used to support biodiversity protection measures, such as the creation of a system of ecological corridors that allows the species tracking optimal climatic requirements in space.

Keywords

• Ecological niche modelling
• Life-history traits
• Regional characteristics
• Global warming