Extreme Value Analysis of Ocean Still Water Levels along the USA East Coast—Case Study (Key West, Florida)

Abstract

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly still water level (SWL) record at Key West, Florida dating back to 1913 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences (predominantly hurricane induced storm surges) that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The impact of hurricane ‘Wilma’ in 2005 dominates the records, producing a super-elevation of the SWL above Mean Sea Level (MSL) of 1155 mm with an estimated return period of around 147 years. This paper explores the duality of increasing risks of oceanic inundation due to extreme events and increasing mean sea level over time, whilst also providing a range of recommendations for ensuring improved predictive model fitting and robustness of EVA for SWLs measured at tide gauges. When integrated with future IPCC AR6 sea level projections, the return level plots from the EVA provide decision makers with key guidance for design, strategic planning and climate change adaptation purposes at Key West, Florida.

Keywords

• extreme value analysis
• sea level rise
• climate change