The Application of Recurrence Quantification Analysis in Detection of Abrupt Climate Change

Abstract

This paper explores the possible application of recurrence quantification analysis in the detection of abrupt change of the dynamic structure of the climate system. It is discovered in the recurrence quantification analysis of the typical chaotic system-logistic model that the method may well distinguish the state of logistic model with different parameters, demonstrating its potential value in identifying the dynamic change of the system. When recurrence quantification analysis is later applied to the detection of abrupt change of average daily precipitation of all regions in China, the result indicates that the abrupt change of the dynamic structure corresponding to the precipitation of China in recent 50 years occurred in the late 1970s and the early 1980s. It is in agreement with the Chinese commonly recognized years of abruption; therefore the effectiveness is further demonstrated regarding the recognition of complexity of dynamical system.