Tobacco-related cancer mortality: projections for different geographical regions in Switzerland

Abstract

PRINCIPLES: Switzerland is divided into 26 cantons of variable population size and cultural characteristics. Although a federal law to protect against passive smoking and a national tobacco control programme exist, details of tobacco-related policies are canton-specific. This study aimed to project gender-specific tobacco-related cancer mortality in Switzerland at different geographical levels for the periods 2009–2013 and 2014–2018. METHODS: In this analysis, data on Swiss tobacco-related cancer mortality from 1984 until 2008 were used. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were formulated to assess past trends of gender-specific tobacco-related cancer mortality and to project them up to 2018 at cantonal and language region levels. Furthermore, estimates are provided on a national scale by age categories of 50–69 and ≥70 years. RESULTS: Model-based estimates at cantonal level identified regions with low and high tobacco-related cancer mortality rates for the observed and projected periods. Our analysis based on language regions showed the lowest mortality in the German-speaking part. Projections at national level, between younger (age 50–69) and older (age ≥70) males, indicated an ongoing decreasing trend for males but an upward trend for females. The gap in tobacco-related cancer mortality rates between younger and older males seems to be shrinking. In females, a stronger rise was obtained for the younger age group. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate region-, sex- and age-related differences in tobacco-related cancer mortality in Switzerland and this could be useful for healthcare planning and for evaluating the impact of canton-specific tobacco-related policies and interventions.

Keywords

• age-period-cohort models
• Bayesian inference
• projections
• tobacco-related cancer mortality