The Influence of Five Teleconnection Patterns on Wintertime Extratropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific

Abstract

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over the Northwest Pacific are identified and tracked by applying an objective tracking algorithm to the 6-h time interval relative vorticity fields from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data. A total of 2145 ETCs in the November–February winters for the period of 1979–2018 were identified. First, by comparing the ETC track densities in the two periods 1979–1998 and 1999–2018, a significant difference in ETC track density was detected over the Japan Sea, Japan, and North Pacific. Next, the influence of five teleconnection patterns, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Western Pacific (WP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American (PNA), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the ETC track density was investigated by using composite analysis and correlation analysis. WP, NAO, and PDO patterns contributed more to the interannual variability of ETC track density, and higher cyclone densities usually occur in the negative phase of these teleconnection patterns. In contrast, the effects of ENSO and PNA were relatively weak. Finally, a Poisson generalized linear regression model for the ETC counts with respect to the five teleconnection indices was also developed for the purpose of linking all the teleconnection patterns with ETC activities over Northwest Pacific; and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) procedure was used for model selection in the statistical modeling. The influence of the five teleconnection patterns on ETC track density was also verified in the regression model. The predicted winter ETC counts agreed well with the historical records during 1979–2018 over the Northwest Pacific.

Keywords

• extratropical cyclones
• teleconnection patterns
• composite analysis
• Poisson regression
• Bayesian model averaging