Anthropogenic warming disrupts intraseasonal monsoon stages and brings dry-get-wetter climate in future East Asia

Abstract

Abstract East Asia will face a skewed monsoon cycle with soaring flood, drought, and weather whiplash risks in a warming climate. In our objective eight-intraseasonal-monsoon-stage framework, we uncover a ‘dry-get-wetter’ paradigm in East Asia, contesting the fallen ‘rich-get-richer’ common belief. On timing, the Mid-summer and Fall periods are stretching at the expense of three delayed, shortened, and weakened winter stages, especially near the end of the twenty-first century. On threats, entire East Asia will experience up to 14–20 more heavy precipitation days during the rainy Spring to Mid-summer stages. Specifically, the Yangtze basin will suffer from an earlier pluvial period with escalating flood risks. Moreover, societal security and ecosystem resilience in the Huai-Yellow basin, South Japan, and the Korean Peninsula will be challenged by more frequent weather whiplash. Under the monsoon-stage framework, a complete moisture budget decomposition sheds light on the causes of a slower precipitation scaling and the ‘dry-get-wetter’ paradigm.