Mapping the potential distribution of the principal vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus Hyalomma marginatum in the Old World.

Abstract

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is the most widely distributed tick-borne viral disease in humans and is caused by the Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). The virus has a broader distribution, expanding from western China and South Asia to the Middle East, southeast Europe, and Africa. The historical known distribution of the CCHFV vector Hyalomma marginatum in Europe includes most of the Mediterranean and the Balkan countries, Ukraine, and southern Russia. Further expansion of its potential distribution may have occurred in and out of the Mediterranean region. This study updated the distributional map of the principal vector of CCHFV, H. marginatum, in the Old World using an ecological niche modeling approach based on occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and a set of covariates. The model predicted higher suitability of H. marginatum occurrences in diverse regions of Africa and Asia. Furthermore, the model estimated the environmental suitability of H. marginatum across Europe. On a continental scale, the model anticipated a widespread potential distribution encompassing the southern, western, central, and eastern parts of Europe, reaching as far north as the southern regions of Scandinavian countries. The distribution of H. marginatum also covered countries across Central Europe where the species is not autochthonous. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random expectations (p < 0.001). Based on the model results, climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of H. marginatum and their survival as adults in many regions of the Old World. Regular updates of the models are still required to continually assess the areas at risk using up-to-date occurrence and climatic data in present-day and future conditions.