The World Will Never be the Same: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict as a Trigger Point for Deglobalisation

Abstract

This paper makes the case for why we believe that the Russia-Ukraine crisis signals the end of a global era defined by globalisation. Even though Russia’s economy is only a fraction of the US, EU or China, its role in the world is much more relevant and the events in Ukraine are triggering a cascade of effects that will redefine the political, social and economic thinking and interactions among nations long into the future. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the “peace dividend” of recent decades is gone as military budgets are increasing significantly around the world. Energy and raw material dependency on other countries is considered a strategic weakness. The war has disrupted global supply chains and nations are now shunning the exposure to other countries, especially ones that do not share similar values. The macroeconomic environment has changed as growth prospects are depressed and inflation is on the rise. The world is moving to a period of reorganisation and instability.

Keywords

• war in ukraine
• peace and security