Prediction of Anthracnose Risk in Large-Leaf Tea Trees Based on the Atmospheric Environmental Changes in Yunnan Tea Gardens—Cox Regression Model and Machine Learning Model

Abstract

Crop diseases pose a major threat to agricultural production, quality, and sustainable development, highlighting the importance of early disease risk prediction for effective disease control. Tea anthracnose can easily occur in Yunnan under high-temperature and high-humidity environments, which seriously affects the ecosystem of tea gardens. Therefore, the establishment of accurate, non-destructive, and rapid prediction models has a positive impact on the conservation of biodiversity in tea plantations. Because of the linear relationship between disease occurrence and environmental conditions, the growing environmental conditions can be effectively used to predict crop diseases. Based on the climate data collected by Internet of Things devices, this study uses LASSO-COX-NOMOGRAM to analyze the expression of tea anthracrum to different degrees through Limma difference analysis, and it combines Cox single-factor analysis to study the influence mechanism of climate and environmental change on tea anthracrum. Modeling factors were screened by LASSO regression, 10-fold cross-validation and Cox multi-factor analysis were used to establish the basis of the model, the nomogram prediction model was constructed, and a Shiny- and DynNOM-visualized prediction system was built. The experimental results showed that the AUC values of the model were 0.745 and 0.731 in the training set and 0.75 and 0.747 in the verification set, respectively, when the predicted change in tea anthracnose disease risk was greater than 30% and 60%, and the calibration curve was in good agreement with the ideal curve. The accuracy of external verification was 83.3% for predicting tea anthracnose of different degrees. At the same time, compared with the traditional prediction method, the method is not affected by the difference in leaf background, which provides research potential for early prevention and phenotypic analysis, and also provides an effective means for tea disease identification and harm analysis.

Keywords

• tea anthracnose
• lasso
• machine learning
• prediction model
• calibration curve
• nomogram