Analyzing Driving Factors of Drought in Growing Season in the Inner Mongolia Based on Geodetector and GWR Models

Abstract

As an important ecological security barrier in northern China, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (hereinafter referred to as Inner Mongolia) is seriously affected by drought. It is of great significance to characterize the spatial distribution of drought and identify the influencing factors of drought. Due to complex interactions among drought driving factors, it is difficult to quantify the contribution of each driving factor to drought using linear correlation analysis alone. In this study, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as a quantitative indicator of drought to discuss the spatiotemporal variation of drought during growing seasons in the Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2018. We quantitatively characterized mode, scope, and intensity of changes in SPEI caused by drought-influencing factors such as weather, water, topography, soil, and human activities using the Geodetector and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models. We concluded that about 20.3% of the region showed a downward trend in SPEI, with the fastest rate of decline in the central and western Inner Mongolia. Air temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to rivers are the main controlling factors in drought change, and the factor interactions showed nonlinear enhancement. The drought driving effect was obvious in Alxa League, Wuhai City, Ulanqab City, and Baotou City. The results will help us to understand the effects of the driving factors on drought and eventually help policymakers with water-resource management.

Keywords

• growing season
• driving factors of drought
• Geodetector
• GWR model
• Inner Mongolia