Probabilistic Analysis of Ground Surface Settlement of Excavation Considering Spatial Variable Modified Cam-Clay Model Parameters

Abstract

The modified Cam-clay model (MCC model) is capable of representing the consolidation process of the soil under a complex stress path and thus is extensively adopted in the numerical analysis of excavation engineering. For reliability problems of ground surface settlement of excavation, minimal attention has been paid to investigating the effect of spatial variable MCC model parameters on the settlement during the staged construction of the excavation. Based on laboratory tests and sensitivity analysis, this study launched the probabilistic transient hydro-mechanical coupling analysis of excavation settlement considering spatial variable deformation parameters (λ and κ) using an MCS-FORM hybrid approach. The results show that: (1) Both the deformation parameters have a positive relationship with the settlement, and κ has a more significant effect than λ. (2) The observed maximum settlement and the location with maximum settlement follow a log-normal distribution. (3) An increasing COV of parameters leads to an enhanced surface settlement, expansion of the significant influence region, and decreased reliability. (4) The reliability index is greatly enhanced with the delimited controlled standard value of the surface settlement, Hcon, and it decreases significantly at the preliminary stage and then decreases progressively until stable during excavating. Overall, adopting the deterministic analysis without considering the spatial variability of MCC parameters leads to underestimating the risk due to the settlement and the significant influence region.

Keywords

• modified cam-clay model
• reliability
• ground surface settlement
• excavation