Nature Communications (Feb 2021)

More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century

  • Nicola Maher,
  • Scott B. Power,
  • Jochem Marotzke

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20635-w
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 12, no. 1
pp. 1 – 13

Abstract

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Uncertainty in estimates of future climate arises not only from internal variability, but also from model-to-model differences. Here, the authors use a new set of single model initial-condition large ensembles to quantify the contribution of model differences to the overall uncertainty in temperature and precipitation projections.