Modeling and analysis of risk factors affecting operation of photovoltaic power plants

Abstract

The operation stage in photovoltaic (PV) power plants is considered one of the most imperative stages to achieve the sustainability of these projects. There are many risk factors that affect the PV operating goals, such as energy output, cost, and lifespan. The aim of this study is to identify the main risk groups and risk factors associated with operating the solar PV power plants, as well as to assess and analyze the effects of these risk factors on the operation process. Sixty-two risk factors are grouped into nine different risk categories associated with international regulation, technology, financial and economic, supply chain, environmental, climate change, market, organizational, and safety. To overcome the problem of conjoining multi characteristics for any risk factor, a model for qualitative risk analysis using fuzzy logic features is developed. Through three new indices, the model adds a suitable factor analysis that links several effects on PV operating goals in order to figure out how important each risk factor is. Results show that the most significant risk factors that pose high threats to the operation of the solar PVs include “Grid Stability” for energy output, “Commodity Price” for cost, and “Maintenance Challenges” for life span, while “Energy Storage” is observed to be the most frequent in these projects. For the results of the group analysis, the Technology Risk group is evaluated as the most important risk group that affects the operation of the solar PV power plant. There is a high association between cost and lifespan, whereas most influencing risk factors affect both energy output and lifespan.

Keywords

• Solar Photovoltaics
• Risk analysis and management
• Modeling and analysis
• Fuzzy risk indices
• Risk Groups analysis