At-scale Model Output Statistics in mountain environments (AtsMOS v1.0)

Abstract

This paper introduces the AtsMOS (At-scale Model Output Statistics) workflow, designed to enhance mountain meteorology predictions through the downscaling of coarse numerical weather predictions using local observational data. AtsMOS provides a modular, open-source toolkit for local and large-scale forecasting of various meteorological variables through modified model output statistics – and may be applied to data from a single station or an entire network. We demonstrate its effectiveness through an example application at the summit of Mt. Everest, where it improves the prediction of both meteorological variables (e.g. wind speed, temperature) and derivative variables (e.g. facial frostbite time) critical for mountaineering safety. As a bridge between numerical weather prediction models and ground observations, AtsMOS contributes to hazard mitigation, water resource management, and other weather-dependent issues in mountainous regions and beyond.