ASSESSMENT OF CYCLICAL AND STOCHASTIC WIND FLOW TO ENSURE POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY

Abstract

This article highlights current issues related to the problem of variability of wind power generation, which is becoming increasingly important as wind power’s contribution to the overall energy balance of many countries grows. Various aspects of wind flow volatility, including its random and deterministic components, are considered. The random component is associated with unpredictable changes in wind speed and direction, while the deterministic component is due to known patterns, such as daily and seasonal variations. The article proposes different methods for levelling the stochasticity of wind power flows. This is important for the stability and reliability of the power system, as it reduces the likelihood blackouts and ensures a more even distribution of load. The article also gives examples of the economic and environmental impact of using the proposed methods.

Keywords

• renewable energy sources
• wind energy forecast
• stochasticity
• wind power plant
• quantile forecast
• statistical test