The effect of climate and land cover changes on the distribution of Actinodaphne areolata Blume, an endemic and endangered species in Java, Indonesia

Abstract

Actinodaphne areolata Blume is an endemic plant in Indonesia. The minimal distribution makes this species threatened and even listed as endangered species by IUCN. Therefore, analyses of climate change and land cover change were conducted to predict the future species distribution and to determine conservation action for this species. The plant occurrences from GBIF online database and Naturalis herbarium data were collected and validated. The environmental variables used in the model were topography, vegetation, soil, and climate. All environmental variables were selected with the multicollinearity test. Prediction of future land cover using cellular automata and the future species distribution for 2050 (2041-2060) and 2070 (2061-2080) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy (maxent). The resulting habitat suitability prediction model has an AUC value of more than 0.92, indicating an adequate model for predicting habitat suitability for A.areolate. Environmental variables that affect the presence of A. areolata are temperature seasonality (bio4) and land cover. Land cover and climate change were estimated to impact plant distribution in the future negatively. The suitable habitat for A. areolata will gradually decrease throughout the year, so it is necessary to designate priority areas for conserving this species.