Dynamic Carbon Neutrality Mode for Coal-Based Energy Systems and Effectiveness Assessment Thereof

Abstract

The conventional energy-transition pathway, that is, reducing coal, increasing gas, and developing renewable energies, cannot fully satisfy the requirement of China for energy security under the new situation. Creating a novel dynamic carbon neutrality mode for coal-based energy systems is a forward-looking development approach to solving the problem of high carbon emissions and ensuring national energy security. This study summarizes the international energy transition modes and analyzes the urgency and importance of developing a low-carbon coal-based energy system in response to the challenges of energy security and emissions reduction. Moreover, it clarifies the scientific intension, establishes a system framework, and discloses the security guarantee and emissions reduction mechanisms of the dynamic carbon neutrality mode for coal-based energy systems. An effectiveness assessment model based on system dynamics is established to assess the effectiveness of the mode in terms of energy security, emission reduction,and social development. The results indicate that compared to the conventional coal-fueled systems, the coal-based energy system can potentially reduce carbon emissions by 46% to 55% and external dependence on oil and gas to be below 20% in 2060 under different scenarios; the carbon emissions can be reduced by 84% using the dynamic carbon neutrality mode and the carbon capture and storage technology, and is expected to be further lowered owing to the carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology and carbon sinks in mining areas. Coal-based energy development and application can serve as a strategic technology for oil and gas reserves, thereby ensuring energy security. However, China still faces a significant oil and gas gap before 2030, and thus the development of the coalbased energy is urgent. Furthermore, we propose that a novel coal-based energy system supported by dynamic carbon neutrality technologies should be built to achieve energy independence and security as well as achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Coal underground gasification, tar-rich coal utilization, and coalbed gas development technologies should be regarded as a potential technology portfolio in the short and medium term and the coal in-situ fluidization mining technology could be a long-term choice.

Keywords

• coal-fueled energy
• coal-based energy
• dynamic carbon neutrality
• energy security
• carbon emission reduction