Aydın İli Efeler İlçesi’nde Potansiyel Arazi Kullanımı Çatışma Alanlarının LUCIS Modeli ile Belirlenmesi

Abstract

Geographical Information Systems technologies allow the development of land use scenarios for the future. Land Use Conflict Identification Strategy (LUCIS) model; agricultural conservation by identifying areas of potential conflict of land use and urban land use predictions about how the changes will happen for the next period in GIS-based simulation model. In this study, land use conflict areas of Efeler, the central district of Aydın, were determined through the LUCIS model and land use estimates were made. In this context, multi-criteria evaluation techniques were applied and suitability analyses were carried out for land use categories over 56 sub-objectives, 19 objectives and 12 targets. The future conflict areas of agricultural, conservation and urban areas have been identified and a land use prediction map has been produced. According to the general results of the study: about half (48.84%) of the district area of 631 km2 remains within the conflict zone, and urban sprawl will occur mainly on agricultural and conservation areas. This will also be an indication that agricultural areas will continue to increase their pressure on conservation areas by accelerating.

Keywords

• land use
• land use conflict
• simulation
• lucis model
• geographical information systems