Gaussian models for anthropogenic CO2 emissions consistent with prescribed climate targets

Abstract

Objectives: The purpose of this paper is to provide global and national climate policy makers with smooth patterns of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that better fit prescribed climate targets, in comparison with existing mitigation models.Methods: Based on an accessible mathematical analysis, a linearly-increasing relative rate of reduction is considered for the emissions, and therefore, Gaussian modelling appears as a perfect tool for such an improvement.Results: Among the designed models, a flexible pattern, composed of a half-bell-shaped decline preceded by a parabolic slowdown, is found to be ideal for bringing the emissions to ‘zero’ as soon as possible without direct removal of CO2. It is shown, in particular, that a global mitigation, based on this pattern, consistent with the 1.5 °C target and starting in 2020, will help to achieve a global ‘zero’ emission in 2050, as urged by the United Nations (UN), earlier in the mid 2040s, or later in the mid-late 2050s for more feasibility with an average annual reduction in the range 2.46–3.19 GtCO2 (which includes each of the EU and USA annual records of about 2.8 GtCO2) from a peak projected in the late thirties.Conclusion: Based on a mathematical approach to CO2 emissions modelling, the study reveals a parametrised collection of feasible and flexible pathways, with the advantage of bringing the emissions smoothly to an earlier or similar ‘zero’ timing, with, unlike UN models, no target overshooting nor need for negative-emission technology.

Keywords

• Climate target
• CO2 emissions
• Emissions peaking
• Gaussian models
• Remaining CO2 budget
• Zero emission timing