Интеллект. Инновации. Инвестиции (Oct 2024)
Spatial and temporal dynamics of the specifics of the risk of road traffic accidents in large Russian cities (2015-2023)
Abstract
In the course of practical implementation of the Road Safety Strategy in the Russian Federation, relevant specialists realize not only the unreality of achieving its goals within the established time frame, but also the declarative nature of this document and the lack of appropriate scientific and methodological tools, the use of which could help in solving the tasks set. One of the important elements of this tool could be a methodology for quantitative assessment of the risks of road traffic accidents. Another element is the results of assessing the spatio-temporal specificity of risk formation processes. The purpose of the study, some results of which are presented in this article, is to study the dynamics of spatio-temporal features of the formation of risks of death of Russians in road accidents (for the case of large cities). The article presents the methodology and results of assessing the risks of road traffic accidents in Russian cities with a population of Ngor = 501 ... 1000 thousand people. The specificity of the risk of road traffic accidents is considered from the position of assessing the statistical relationship between two particular components of the accident risk – «Risk of participation in an abstract road traffic accident (RTA) P RTA» (Indicator 1) and «Total consequences of an accident (Risk of death in a specific accident Cons RTA» (Indicator 2). The results of the study are characterized by scientific novelty. In particular, it was found that particular characteristics of the accident risk P RTA and Cons RTA can be considered from the position of dialectical opposition. With an increase in one of them, the other decreases, and vice versa. In fact, this is one of the examples of the implementation of the general scientific law of conservation (of matter, energy, information). In this case, the discovered effects can be interpreted from the position of the law of conservation of information. The article also presents assessments of the spatio-temporal specificity of the risks of road traffic accidents. Based on the results of the studies, a conclusion was made about the need to use fundamentally different approaches in road safety technologies in various cities of the country, taking into account the specificity of the accident risk. Further research in the area of studying the specifics of accident risks can be aimed both at expanding the number of objects of study (i.e. devoted to the study of accident risks in Russian cities with a smaller or larger population), and at studying the relationship between accident risks and the most important factors of a large complex system «Person – Car – Road – Environment» (CCRE).
Keywords
