Predicting Relapse in Substance Use: Prospective Modeling Based on Intensive Longitudinal Data on Mental Health, Cognition, and Craving

Abstract

Patients with severe substance use disorders are often characterized by neurocognitive impairments and elevated mental health symptom load, typically associated with craving intensity and substance use relapse. There is a need to improve the predictive capabilities of when relapse occurs in order to improve substance use treatment. The current paper contains data from 19 patients (seven females) in a long-term inpatient substance use treatment setting over the course of several weeks, with up to three weekly data collections. We collected data from 252 sessions, ranging from 1 to 24 sessions per subject. The subjects reported craving, self-control, and mental health on each occasion. Before starting the repeated data collection, a baseline neuropsychological screening was performed. In this repeated-measures prospective study, the mixed-effects models with time-lagged predictors support a model of substance use craving and relapse being predicted by the baseline reaction time as well as the temporal changes and variability in mental health symptom load, self-control, and craving intensity with moderate to high effect sizes. This knowledge may contribute to more personalized risk assessments and treatments for this group of patients.

Keywords

• substance use disorder
• prospective modeling
• cognition
• craving
• mental health
• relapse