Nairu estimates for Croatia

Abstract

The main goal of the paper is to estimate the NAIRU for Croatian economy and to discuss the implications of this indicator. The paper provides time-varying estimates of the NAIRU for 2000q1-2011q1 period, which were obtained by applying the Kalman fi lter method. The results reveal that the average estimated value was 12.6 percent, which on average is below the average registeredunemployment rate. The dynamics of the estimated NAIRU points to the ability of the NAIRU to reveal underlying structural misbalances in a national economy. Specifi cally, the approaching crises effect has been detected, as well as previously documented infl ationary pressures, thereby confi rming the potential usefulness of the NAIRU estimation for economic policy decision making process in Croatia.

Keywords

• NAIRU
• Kalman filter: Croatia