Development of Biomarkers and Prognosis Model of Mortality Risk in Patients with COVID-19

Abstract

Zhishuo Zhang,1,* Lujia Tang,1,* Yiran Guo,1 Xin Guo,2 Zhiying Pan,2 Xiaojing Ji,1,* Chengjin Gao1,* 1Department of Emergency, Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200092, China; 2School of Information Science and Technology, Sanda University, Shanghai, Pudong District, 201209, China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Xiaojing Ji; Chengjin Gao, Email [email protected]; [email protected]: As of 30 April 2023, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 6.9 million deaths worldwide. The virus continues to spread and mutate, leading to continuously evolving pathological and physiological processes. It is imperative to reevaluate predictive factors for identifying the risk of early disease progression.Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on a cohort of 1379 COVID-19 patients who were discharged from Xin Hua Hospital affiliated with Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine between 15 December 2022 and 15 February 2023. Patient symptoms, comorbidities, demographics, vital signs, and laboratory test results were systematically documented. The dataset was split into testing and training sets, and 15 different machine learning algorithms were employed to construct prediction models. These models were assessed for accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and the best-performing model was selected for further analysis.Results: AUROC for models generated by 15 machine learning algorithms all exceeded 90%, and the accuracy of 10 of them also surpassed 90%. Light Gradient Boosting model emerged as the optimal choice, with accuracy of 0.928 ± 0.0006 and an AUROC of 0.976 ± 0.0028. Notably, the factors with the greatest impact on in-hospital mortality were growth stimulation expressed gene 2 (ST2,19.3%), interleukin-8 (IL-8,17.2%), interleukin-6 (IL-6,6.4%), age (6.1%), NT-proBNP (5.1%), interleukin-2 receptor (IL-2R, 5%), troponin I (TNI,4.6%), congestive heart failure (3.3%) in Light Gradient Boosting model.Conclusion: ST-2, IL-8, IL-6, NT-proBNP, IL-2R, TNI, age and congestive heart failure were significant predictors of in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients.Keywords: COVID-19, machine learning, prognosis model, ST2, IL-8, TNI, IL-6, IL-2R, congestive heart failure

Keywords

• covid-19
• machine learning
• prognosis model
• st2
• il-8
• tni
• il-6
• il-2r
• congestive heart failure