Domestic Cobalt Flow and Mid-Term Demand Forecast

Abstract

Cobalt tends to occur in the high risk regions of the world. Cobalt sources are typically concentrated in Congo, DRC, and there are concerns about supply security. Cobalt is used in the leading-edge industries including green technologies and aerospace industries. In terms of resource security, it is important to verify the domestic cobalt consumption trends. In order to resolve the domestic cobalt consumption trends in Japan in 2013, we tracked the cobalt consumption structure from material to end-uses by applying the bottom-up approach, and illustrated the recent domestic cobalt flow by using a substance flow analysis. Recent consumption in 2013 was driven primarily by the use of cobalt in Li ion batteries (7839 t) and nickel metal hydride batteries (1263 t). In total, 9413 t of cobalt was input to Japan in 2013. And also, we anticipated the future domestic cobalt demand up to 2020, based on the relationship between the historical consumption trends and GDP. It showed that cobalt demand would reach to 13162 t in 2020, that is, Li ion battery sector (11089 t) should hold the biggest demand in 2020, followed by NiMH battery sector (1004 t), carbide sector (320 t), magnet sector (360 t), etc.

Keywords

• rare metal
• cobalt
• substance flow analysis
• demand forecast