The Impact of the Regional Public Debt Level on Regional Economic Growth Rates in Russia

Abstract

This article estimates the impact of the level of regional public debt on the rate of regional economic growth in the context of socio-economic development of Russian regions. The results obtained are important for determining the optimal level of regional public debt in order to increase the efficiency of the Russian regional budget policy. The level of regional public debt is understood in this study as the ratio of regional public debt to its GRP. Considering the heterogeneity of regions in the modeling process, the subjects were clustered by the level of socio-economic development using the k-means algorithm. Further, the results of clustering were used in econometric models to identify differences in the level of regional public debt impact on the economic growth of regions depending on the level of their socio-economic development. Using panel data models for the subjects of the Russian Federation, the negative impact of the public debt level on regional economic growth rates was revealed for regions with a low and medium levels of socio-economic development. By implementing the Hansen procedure for the subjects of these clusters, the threshold level of regional public debt was found. It is equal to 2.36% of GRP, above which the neutral impact of public debt on economic growth is replaced by a negative one. For regions with a high level of socio-economic development it was found that changes in the level of public debt are neutral in relation to regional economic growth. These results allowed us to formulate recommendations for regional budget policy.

Keywords

• public debt
• economic growth
• clustering
• panel data model
• threshold regression
• regional budget policy